Monday, February 25, 2008

Opinion poll numbers

New opinion poll from Latvijas Fakti about how people would vote if elections were now. For first time, they have included the two new parties that are forming now: one consisting of New Era defectors (lead by Sandra Kalniete) and the group that left Fatherland and Freedom a few days later (lead by Ģirts Valdis Kristovskis) and another lead by People's Party's defectors Aigars Štokenbergs and Artis Pabriks.

The numbers are:
Harmony Centre 9%
Farmers and Greens 6.7%
Kalniete - Kristovskis party 6.4%
People's Party 6%
LPP/LC 4.6%
Štokenbergs - Pabriks party 3.7%
New Era Party 3.6%
Fatherland and Freedom 2.5%
undecided or would not vote 46%
The conclusions:
  1. Compared to the previous poll, the biggest loser is opposition's New Era. Kalniete and other former popular ex-New Era people are starting a new party and the former New Era voters are gone to them.
  2. The coalition parties remain unpopular but not more than two months ago. The huge undecided/would not vote segment is still there. The new parties have convinced the former New Era voters but not much of the rest of the country.
  3. The undecided voters will probably vote for someone. It's impossible to predict whom. But the next parliament will be quite different from the current one.
Even though the numbers will change a lot until the election, I translated them into seats in the parliament:
Coalition: 39
Farmers and Greens 15
People's Party 14

Opposition - ethnically Russian: 31
Harmony Centre 20

Opposition - ethnically Latvian: 30
Kalniete - Kristovskis 14
New Era Party 8
Štokenbergs - Pabriks 8
For all of post-independence Latvia, the Russian parties have been left in the opposition. With those numbers, it's hard to think of a stable government without the Harmony Centre, the biggest and the more moderate of the two ethnically Russian parties that we have.

No comments: