Since we are at a rapid turning point, quarterly data might show the trends better. Quarter-on-quarter, the economy grew 3.2%. However, the 1st quarter is economically slow every year and the 2nd quarter always shows big growth number compared to the 1st quarter.
Here is a rough seasonal adjustment:
- over last 5 years, the average quarter-on-quarter economic growth in Q2 has been 6.1%;
- throughout the year, the average quarter-on-quarter growth is 2.3%;
- thus, economic growth is by 6.1-2.3=3.8% faster in the 2nd quarter.
If the trend continues, the Q3 will have a year-on-year GDP "growth" of around -3% and, for the entire year 2008, it will be around -1%.