Sunday, October 08, 2006

Preliminary election results

With 970 of 1006 precints reporting:
Tautas Partija 19.52%
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 16.81%
Jaunais laiks 16.12%
"Saskaņas Centrs" 14.10%
LPP/LC 8.53%
"Tēvzemei un Brīvībai"/LNNK 6.80%
PCTVL 5.85%
From region-by-region results and my Excel spreadsheet, here are the projected numbers of seats in the parliament:
Tautas Partija 23
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 18
Jaunais laiks 18
"Saskaņas Centrs" 18
"Tēvzemei un Brīvībai"/LNNK 7
As usual, the region-by-region formula distorts the vote proportions a bit. The numbers are nearly final (98-100% vote counted) for all regions except Riga. Riga results may shift by a seat or two. The most likely possibility is Jaunais Laiks gaining one more seat, either from "Tēvzemei un Brīvībai"/LNNK or Saskanas Centrs.

The current TP+ZZS+LPP/LC coalition is currently at 51 seats (out of 100) and this total is unlikely to change. Will Kalvitis be the first prime minister (since 1990) who keeps his position after the election?

UPDATE (10:25pm): Diena has a different projection, with 1 more seat for ZZS and TB/LNNK and 2 less for Saskanas Centrs. I checked my calculations but did not find any mistake.

Meanwhile, the only uncounted votes left are from abroad (including mine!). The projected seat totals have not changed. The abroad votes are credited to Riga region and can still result in Jaunais Laiks gaining a seat there.

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