Thursday, September 07, 2006

August opinion poll comments

First, the numbers are unofficial. Latvijas Fakti decided not to release them. This has some bizarre pre-history. A few weeks ago, Dzimtene party claimed that their true popularity is about 10 times higher than in Latvijas Fakti polls (11% instead of 1.2%) and asked the Latvian anti-corruption office to investigate Latvijas Fakti. Dzimtene is a moderately obscure party which recently attracted attention by nominating Vadim Putin (who has similar name but is not related to Russian president Vladimir Putin) as a candidate to Latvian parliament. That smelled like a publicity stunt and Dzimtene's claim about opinions polls being wrong has a similar smell. Some of people involved in Dzimtene have a history of such stunts and there is nothing surprising here. Nothing, except for the reaction of Latvijas Fakti. They said they are tired of people questioning their polls and decided not to release the most recent poll. (I wonder if that means that some more influential party is unhappy as well... Dzimtene is too obscure to merit such strong reaction.) Their decision was a pity because I respect Latvijas Fakti and their numbers. But, a few days later, newspapers got hold of the numbers and, now, everyone knows them.

Second, the big story is Jaunais Laiks (New Era) falling from the first place in July to the fourth place in August. Neatkariga Rita Avize (NRA), a newspaper hostile to New Era, credits the fall to their publication of transcripts of phone conversations between a businessmen who was being investigated by the tax service and senior New Era members. The businessmen was seeking for a help against the investigation and he was getting somewhat symphatetic response from New Era people. New Era Party has the same opinion about the reasons why they fall to the fourth place in the opinion poll, except that they call it as a "smear campaign by NRA".

I think they both may be reading too much into a small change in polls. New Era numbers have declined only by 1.3%. For a poll of 1000 people, that's 13 people and the probability of polling company accidentially choosing 13 less supporters of New Era this time is not the small. According to a calculation by this blogger, the probability of such event is 5-10%, meaning that New Era numbers would get underestimated by 1.3% once every 10-20 months. As long as there isn't another opinion poll confirming the change, it may just be random noise in data.

182 comments:

Pēteris Cedriņš said...

Glad to find your blog, Andri!

Pierre said...

Being a survey statistician, perhaps I can expand on your argument. Assuming that the 1000 respondents were indeed selected from a purely random sample without any refusals (the former is likely true, the latter not), then we would have 95% confidence that the true percentage of voter intent for the Jaunais Laiks party in August is in the interval [7.7%:11.3%]. This interval encompasses the voter intent percentage of 10.8% from the previous month, thus we conclude that the drop of 1.3% is not significant, possibly due to random fluctions in the sample as you rightly point out.

It is interesting to note, however, that the voter intent for Jaunais Laiks in June was 11.7%, which is outside the August interval, but alas, this 11.7% also has a confidence interval attached to it, namely [9.7%:13.7%]. So, since the two intervals overlap, we must again conclude that we are unable to find a statistically significant difference in Jaunais Laiks voter intent between June and August.

That's just the statistical argument. There is also a substantive argument to be made. An apparent drop of 2.2% between June and August, especially if it means the possible loss of 4 seats and a lead position in establishing a ruling coalition, could be seen as substantively significant for the electoral outcome.

The problem is that samples of 1000 respondents are not powerful enough to make these kinds of inferences. We need samples large enough to find differences judged to be substantively significant that are also statistically significant. To find a difference of 2% to be statistically significant, particularly at the 11% range of voter intent (note that the size of a confidence interval is largest at 50% and smaller as the percentage drops or increases), we would need a sample size of 4000.

All of this to say that opinion polls should always be taken with a grain of salt. They are interesting to look at, but they rarely show statistically significant differences, either between the leading parties, or more importantly, between timeframes.

My apologies for making this a long comment...

Pierre said...

I erred in my reasoning for stating that the difference between August and June voter intent for Jaunais Laiks is not statistically significant. The conclusion is correct, but it is not always true that overlapping confidence intervals lead to results that are not statisticaly significant. A slightly more sophisticated calculation needs to be performed.

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